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With Trump back and governing via social media, currency markets will be particularly sensitive to further outbursts.
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The EUR/USD weakened from 1.055 down to 1.051 on the news of the Russian ICBM launch, and the EUR will remain under further pressure.
With Trump trade euphoria still controlling the markets and policymakers wary of cutting rates too fast, it may be some time before we see sustained weakness in the USD.
Traders are already moving on. The FOMC is making an interest rate decision today and is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
If Donald Trump wins, tax cuts and tariffs mean stronger inflation, higher yields, and a much stronger US dollar. This is bad for gold.
While it is hard to bet against gold’s extraordinary run, the fundamentals show that a fall from the recent highs could well occur over the short term.
If we see a continuation or escalation of hostilities, expect gold, oil, and the USD to push even higher